Futures

Market Wrap for Tuesday, June 18: Stocks Rally Ahead of Fed Statement

Scott Rubin — Tue, 18 Jun 2013 20:22:20 +0000

Risk appetite was brisk on Wall Street on Tuesday as investors purchased stocks ahead of Wednesday's FOMC statement. The Fed is expected to provide clarity on when it may begin tapering its current $85 billion per month bond buying program.

Although there is uncertainty, the market seems to be pricing in the likelihood that the Fed will continue its dovish monetary policy for the foreseeable future in order to keep interest rates down and stimulate the economy.

Ahead of Wednesday's Fed commentary, the Dow rose triple digits for the second day in a row and both the S&P and Nasdaq also posted strong gains.

Major Averages

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 138 points, or 0.91 percent, to 15,318.

The S&P 500 climbed 13 points, or 0.78 percent, to 1,652.

The Nasdaq rose 30 points, or 0.87 percent, to 3,482.

CPI

Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent for the month of May. This was the first increase in CPI since February and compares to a decline of 0.4 percent in April. The consensus expected CPI to rise 0.2 percent in May.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.2 percent in May versus a gain of 0.1 percent in both March and April. This compares to consensus estimates calling for an increase of 0.1 percent.

Housing Starts

New home starts rose 6.8 percent in May to 914,000. This compares to 856,000 new starts in April and consensus expectations calling for housing starts of 950,000 last month.

Commodities

Crude oil rose along with the stock market on Tuesday. Late in the day, NYMEX crude futures were up 0.70 percent to $98.45. Brent contracts had climbed 0.51 percent to $106.01. Natural gas added 1 percent on the session and was last trading at $3.91.

Precious metals fell on ...

Technical Tuesday – Gravity's Rainbow or Bernanke's Pot of Gold?

Phil's Stock World — Tue, 18 Jun 2013 13:42:10 +0000

“There is no real direction here, neither lines of power nor cooperation. Decisions are never really made – at best they manage to emerge, from a chaos of peeves, whims, hallucinations and all around assholery. ” – Pynchon

What madness!

It's a fun kind of madness, especially when we can make a quick 36% cashing in the EWJ calls we discussed in yesterday's post and $1,000 per contract on the oil shorts we also discussed in yesterday's post. What do we care if the markets are fixed as long as we UNDERSTAND how they are fixed and are able to play along with the fixers?

Gravity's Rainbow is a novel about V2 Rockets (and other weird stuff) and the title refers to the parabolic trajectory the rockets take. What's most significant ...

A Peek Into The Market Before The Trading Starts

Lisa Levin — Tue, 18 Jun 2013 11:15:58 +0000

Pre-open movers US stock futures are higher this morning, as investors are awaiting economic data. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 27 points to 15,148.00 and S&P 500 index futures rose 3 points to 1,636.70. Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 6.75 points to 2,971.50.

A Peek Into Global Markets European markets were mostly higher today. The STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 0.09%, London's FTSE 100 index gained 0.83%, French CAC 40 Index declined 0.07% and German DAX 30 index rose 0.07%.

Asian markets ended mostly lower, with Japan's Nikkei Stock Average falling 0.20%, China's Shanghai Composite rising 0.14% and Australia's ASX/S&P500 dropping 0.22%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index declined 0.02 points and India's Sensex tumbled 102.59 points.

Broker Recommendation Analysts at Goldman Sachs downgraded Williams Partners LP (NYSE: ...

Benzinga Market Primer: Tuesday, June 18

Matthew Kanterman — Tue, 18 Jun 2013 10:20:56 +0000

Futures Edge Higher In Calm Before the Storm

U.S. equity futures rose slightly in pre-market trade Tuesday as investors eagerly awaited the FOMC decision and statement Wednesday. Monday trading was a whip-saw marked by a steep sell-off over tapering fears.

Top News

In other news around the markets:

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose to 38.5, beating expectations of a reading of 38.1 and better than the prior 36.4.
European Central Bank President spoke in Jerusalem overnight and hinted that the LTRO operations could be extended as a means of providing additional bank liquidity. Speculation had grown that the ECB could do this however it is the first time Draghi has addressed it directly.
European car sales fell to a 20-year low in May as new car registrations fell to 1.08 million from 1.15 million a year ago. Sales at General Motors (NYSE: GM) fell over 10 percent.
S&P 500 futures rose 2.8 points to 1,636.50.
The EUR/USD was higher at 1.3396.
Spanish 10-year government bond yields fell 1 basis point to 4.57 percent.
Italian 10-year government bond yields fell 1 basis point to 4.26 percent.
Gold fell 0.41 percent to $1,377.40 per ounce.

Asian Markets

Asian shares were mixed overnight in unusually quiet trading as markets eagerly anticipate the Fed's decision, the proverbial calm before the storm. ...

US Stock Futures Up; Inflation Data In Focus

Monica Gerson — Tue, 18 Jun 2013 10:19:26 +0000

US stock futures are higher this morning, as investors are awaiting economic data. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 38 points to 15,159.00 and S&P 500 index futures rose 4.60 points to 1,638.30. Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 8.75 points to 2,973.50.

US stocks closed higher on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging 0.73% to 15,179.85, the S&P 500 index rising 0.76% to 1,639.04 and the Nasdaq 100 index gaining 0.83% to 3,452.13.

The ICSC-Goldman Sachs store sales index will be released at 7:45 a.m. ET, while the Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index will be released at 8:55 a.m. ...

Market Wrap for Monday, June 17: Stocks Jump to Start Trading Week; Dow Rallies Triple Digits

Scott Rubin — Mon, 17 Jun 2013 20:21:39 +0000

The U.S. stock market rose on Monday after a series of volatile moves last week. Investors snapped up shares on expectations that the Federal Reserve will reinforce its commitment to monetary stimulus to support the economic recovery.

The Fed is expected to provide clarity on its intentions at the end of a two-day meeting on Wednesday. The stock market gapped sharply higher at the open on Monday, but pared gains in afternoon trade.

Nevertheless, the Dow finished the day up a little better than 100 points, with the S&P and Nasdaq recording similar percentage gains.

Major Averages

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 110 points, or 0.73 percent, to 15,180.

The S&P 500 added roughly 12 points, or 0.76 percent, to 1,639.

The Nasdaq rose a little less than 29 points, or 0.83 percent, to 3,452.

Commodities

Crude oil prices were largely unchanged on Monday. At last check, NYMEX crude futures were down 0.01 percent to $97.84. Brent crude futures lost 0.32 percent and were trading at $105.59. Natural gas jumped better than 4 percent on the session to $3.89.

COMEX gold futures fell 0.35 percent on Monday. Silver was last trading down a little better than 1 percent to $21.76. Copper futures had shed 0.28 percent and were trading at $3.1925.

In the grains complex, corn and wheat were mixed. Near the close, corn futures were up a little more than 1 percent while wheat had lost 0.04 percent. Movers in soft commodities included cocoa and sugar. At last check, cocoa was down 1.69 percent while sugar had climbed slightly less ...

Monday Manipulated Market Malarkey – Welcome Greater Fools!

Phil's Stock World — Mon, 17 Jun 2013 13:23:20 +0000

What complete BS the Futures are!

We started out last night, at 6pm, with the Dow Futures right at 15,000, flat to Friday's close. However, MIRACULOUSLY, by Asia's close at 4am, we were back to 15,130 (Friday's high) and you have to be high if you could read the weekend headlines we were going over in early morning Member Chat and thought that kind of move was justified! We concluded that oil futures (/CL) would be the best short at a ridiculous $98.50 so we called that line and, already, less than two hours later (8:17), we're back at the $98 line with $500 per contract profits! Maybe we should just take the rest of the week off and quit while we're ahead.

We're very happy to ...

Pre-Market Global Review - 6/17/13 - Economic Reports Derail Upswing

Market Tea Leaves — Mon, 17 Jun 2013 12:21:05 +0000

Good Morning Traders,

As of this writing 5:05 AM EST, here’s what we see:

US Dollar –Up at 80.925, the Sept US Dollar is up 80 ticks and is trading at 80.925.
Energies – July Oil is up at 98.30.
Financials – The September 30 year bond is down 1 tick and is trading at 140.10.
Indices – The June S&P 500 emini ES contract is up at 1631.50 and is up 52 ticks.
Gold – The August gold contract is trading down at 1386.20 and is down 14 ticks from its close.

Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market. The dollar is up+ and oil is up+ which is not normal but the 30 year bond is trading lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice versa. The indices are up and the US dollar is trading higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.

All of Asia closed higher with the exception of the Shanghai exchange which closed fractionally lower. As of this writing all of Europe is trading up.

Possible challenges to traders today is the following
1. Empire State Manufacturing Index is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
2. NAHB Housing Market Index is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
3. G8 Meeting starts today.

On Friday we said our bias was neutral as we had a number of major reports due that we felt could drive the markets in any direction. The net result? The Dow dropped 106 points and the other indices dropped as well. Today we are not dealing with a correlated market however our bias is to the upside. Why? Asia closed higher and Europe is currently trading higher. The Bonds are staring to trade lower which is bullish for the markets and indices. Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

On Friday we said our bias was neutral, however subscribers to Market Tea Leaves who listened to our Market Bias video heard me say that ordinarily I say our bias is to the downside but because we had major economic reports that could serve to drive the markets in any direction. Well the economic reports came and went ...

A Peek Into The Market Before The Trading Starts

Lisa Levin — Mon, 17 Jun 2013 11:13:23 +0000

Pre-open movers US stock futures are higher this morning. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 125 points to 15,113.00 and S&P 500 index futures rose 14.20 points to 1,632.60. Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 29.25 points to 2,966.25.

A Peek Into Global Markets European markets were higher today. The STOXX Europe 600 Index climbed 1.14%, London's FTSE 100 index gained 0.93%, French CAC 40 Index climbed 1.85% and German DAX 30 index rose 1.41%.

Asian markets ended higher, with Japan's Nikkei Stock Average rising 2.73%, China's Shanghai Composite dropping 0.27% and Australia's ASX/S&P500 surging 0.62%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.22% and India's Sensex jumped 0.77%.

Broker Recommendation Piper Jaffray upgraded Heartland Payment Systems (NYSE: HPY) from “neutral” to “overweight.” The target price for ...

Benzinga Market Primer: Monday, June 17

Matthew Kanterman — Mon, 17 Jun 2013 11:04:41 +0000

Futures Gain On Fed Hopes

U.S. equity futures advanced in early pre-market trade ahead of the much anticipated FOMC meeting this week, which concludes Wednesday. Despite recent fears of tapering, the Fed is expected to downgrade its economic forecasts near consensus economist forecasts which could increase dovish rhetoric in the policy statement.

Top News

In other news around the markets:

The Spanish government blocked AT&T's (NYSE: T) bid for Telefonica (NYSE: TEF), Europe's most indebted telecommunications company, citing its strategic position to the Spanish economy.
Bloomberg reported that Boeing (NYSE: BA) is expected to announce a new order of 10 787 Dreamliners from General Electric's (NYSE: GE) aircraft leasing unit.
Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Man of Steel, the relaunch of the Superman movie series, became the second-most successful movie of the year after the film made $113 million in its first weekend, behind only Iron Man 3.
S&P 500 futures rose 10.8 points to 1,629.90.
The EUR/USD was lower at 1.3337.
Spanish 10-year government bond yields were flat at 4.58 percent.
Italian 10-year government bond yields fell to 4.28 percent from 4.29 percent.
Gold declined 0.07 percent to $1,386.60 per ounce.

Asian Markets

Asian shares were mixed overnight as the Nikkei recovered some recent losses. The Japanese Nikkei 225 Index gained 2.73 percent and the Topix Index ...

US Stock Futures Signal Higher Start On Wall Street

Monica Gerson — Mon, 17 Jun 2013 10:13:41 +0000

US stock futures are higher this morning. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 135 points to 15,123.00 and S&P 500 index futures rose 15.30 points to 1,633.70. Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 30.50 points to 2,967.50.

US stocks closed lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling 0.70% to 15,070.18, the S&P 500 index falling 0.59% to 1,626.73 and the Nasdaq 100 index dropping 0.63% to 3,423.56.

The ...

Market Wrap for Friday, June 14: Stocks Retreat on Economic Reports and Profit Taking

Scott Rubin — Fri, 14 Jun 2013 20:27:10 +0000

The U.S. stock market fell on Friday as a preliminary report showed a slightly steeper than expected fall in consumer sentiment for June and other economic reports also missed consensus estimates. Although the news on the economic front was hardly a cause for panic, the market also succumbed to profit-taking, which has been intermittently triggering volatility in the major averages. The Dow closed down slightly more than triple digits on the session, with the S&P and Nasdaq recording similar losses. Overall, the S&P recorded a loss of roughly 1 percent from Monday's open.

Major Averages

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 106 points, or 0.70 percent, to 15,070.

The S&P 500 lost almost 10 points, or 0.59 percent, to finish at 1,627.

The Nasdaq shed 22 points, or 0.63 percent, to just below 3,424.

PPI

Producer prices jumped 0.5 percent in May after recording a decline of 0.7 percent for April. This was well ahead of consensus expectations which called for PPI to be up 0.1 percent last month.

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, core PPI was only up 0.1 percent in May, the same as in April. This was in-line with consensus expectations.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production was unchanged in May after falling 0.4 percent in April. The consensus expected industrial production to rise 0.1 percent for the month.

Total capacity utilization fell to 77.6 percent versus 77.7 percent for April. This compared to consensus expectations calling for a rise in capacity utilization to 77.9 percent for May.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

The preliminary report for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed a drop to 82.7 in June from 84.5 in May. This compared to consensus expectations calling for the index to fall to 83.0.

Commodities

Energy prices rose on ...

Friday Thoughts – Tremendous or Titanic Market Signals?

Phil's Stock World — Fri, 14 Jun 2013 14:45:36 +0000

Have you hear of the Titanic Signal?

I hadn't either until this morning, when I read this article from McClellan Financial that had this chart which shows the times (down arrows) in the past 30 years that the number of new 52-week lows exceeds the number of new highs on the NYSE within 7 trading days of a major market high.

Sound confusing? It's not, essentially what it's looking for is a broad sell-off where smaller amounts of stocks are propping up the indexes. That's something we pay attention to all the time in Member Chat (on an intra-day basis), so it's nice to know it makes enough sense to have a name amongst top-notch TA people like McClellan (yes, there are a few I respect). Per their analysis:

GRPN) from “hold” to “buy.” The target price for Groupon has been raised ...

US Stock Futures Flat Ahead Of Economic Data

Monica Gerson — Fri, 14 Jun 2013 10:30:42 +0000

US stock futures are mostly flat this morning, as investors are awaiting economic data. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.01% to 15,184 and S&P 500 index futures fell 0.11% to 1,629.10. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.03% to 2,963.

US stocks closed higher on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging 1.21% to 15,176.08, the S&P 500 index rising 1.48% to 1,636.36 and the Nasdaq 100 index gaining 1.32% to 3,445.37.

The producer price index for May and current account data for the first quarter will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Data on industrial production for ...