Deckers Channel Checkers Bring Good Tidings For Key Season

Deckers Outdoor Corp DECK will deck the halls with cash this year, according to Stifel Nicolaus.

Limited product availability on Nordstromrack.com and Zappos.com suggests Deckers will start the holiday season in a better off-price inventory position than it did last year.

“Better aligned inventories in the U.S. market support a healthy supply/demand dynamic compared to last year, when we believe UGG off-price proliferation undermined full-price selling through DTC, and limited reorders with key wholesale accounts,” Stifel analyst Jim Duffy wrote in a Friday note.

Management’s progress in clearing low-quality platforms sets the stage for margin improvement, inspiring Stifel to raise its price target from $74 to $80 and reiterated a Buy rating on the stock.

What The Research Says

Stifel’s channel checks revealed a 20-percent year-over-year drop in off-price styles, with a 38-percent dip in the core boots subcategory offsetting a 12-percent increase in non-boot offerings. Deckers’ “Classic I” style sold out of off-price channels by August this year, while last year’s lingering clearance cache cut into full-price sales of other products.

The popular “Classic I” is now unavailable through wholesale distributors, whose off-price selection is largely composed of lower-demand styles.

“Cleaner inventory supports favorable supply/demand dynamics and potentially sets the stage for high margin in-season reorders,” Duffy wrote. “We view tighter distribution as emblematic of a stabilizing foundation.”

Pivotal Research shared similar sentiments. The research firm initiated coverage on Deckers with a Buy rating and $80 price target Thursday.

At the time of publication, Deckers was trading at $70.22.

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