The Twitter Earnings 'Cheat Sheet'

In a report published Monday, RBC Capital Markets analysts maintained a Sector Perform rating on Twitter Inc TWTR, with a price target of $54, saying that there is "greater likelihood of upside" than downside to the Street's Q1 estimates.

The analysts expect Twitter to report 1Q revenues at $443MM, EBITDA at $92MM and non-GAAP EPS at $0.01.

The analysts enumerate the main intra-quarter data points as:

• Marginally negative comScore US Multi-Platform traffic trends for twitter. Unique visitors grew 15 percent y/y, representing an 18pt deceleration from the Q4 level.
• Regarding the Twitter and Google Inc GOOGL Partnership, there was news in February that Tweets would once again be searchable via Google by tagging Twitter content.
• Twitter acquires Periscope, a video app that lets users live stream from their mobile devices.
• RBC/ AdAge Social Media Survey – "TWTR generally saw modest deterioration in results versus prior periods with respect to advertiser budget allocation, expected future spend, and general satisfaction. However, perceived ROI on the platform skews positive and budgets skewed toward increasing.

Both Google and Facebook Inc FB reported very consistent ex-FX ad rev growth, "providing positive ecosystem read-thrus for TWTR."

In the report RBC Capital Markets mentioned the key items as:

• User growth & engagement - another 2pt deceleration in 1Q15
• Revenue growth trends…especially advertising – ad revenue growth was at 97 percent y/y in 4Q14, ahead of expectations. This is expected to have decelerated to 75 percent y/y in 1Q to $395M.
• Monetization gap – "Twitter received $1.50 for every MAU in Q4:14, compared to $2.62 for Facebook. However, TWTR grew its monetization 65% Y/Y compared to FB’s 35% Y/Y. The gap should narrow over time," the analysts wrote.